The rural turn that arrived with a new definition of urban

A white consultancy slide under a dark teal masthead reading “Fennimore Hale · Planning & Development Advisory” and “Comprehensive Plan Update · Growth trends briefing · Slide 4 of 18”. A kicker reads “National context · Where Americans live” and the headline reads “After a century of urbanizing, America has started to turn back toward the countryside”. The subhead says the 2020 Census found the urban share falling for the first time in 120 years, from 80.7% to 80.0%, that the rural population grew nearly twice as fast as the urban one, and that growth assumptions built on the old trend need a second look. A teal line chart, “Share of the U.S. population living in urban areas, 1900–2020”, on an axis from 30% to 90%, climbs from 39.6% in 1900 through every census to 80.7% in 2010, then a short rust-coloured segment dips to 80.0% in 2020, labelled “First decline in 120 years”; a note in the plot reads “Every census for a century: a larger urban share than the last”. On the right, a peach card headed “The turn” shows −0.7 points of urban share, 2010–2020, and says every census since 1900 had counted a larger urban share than the one before. A blue-grey card, “Population growth, 2010–2020”, shows a long rust bar for rural, +11.4%, and a shorter teal bar for urban, +6.4%, and says rural America added 6.8 million residents to reach 66.3 million, the most any census since 1900 has counted. Under “What it means for the plan”, three arrows advise re-running the rural service forecast at the 2010s rate, revisiting the growth-area boundary, and not over-building in the core. Grey fine print cites the Census Bureau’s decennial censuses 1900–2020 and 2020 Census Urban Areas facts, notes “Urban areas as defined at each census”, and says the slide is a demonstration drawn by Misleading Charts: Fennimore Hale and its briefing are invented, and every figure is the Census Bureau’s. — Showing the misleading chart

A cream page, kicked “The same Census figures · one definition at a time · U.S. Census Bureau” and headlined “The 2020 ‘decline’ is the year the definition changed. Measured one way at both ends, America’s urban share barely moved.” A standfirst says that for 2020 the Census Bureau raised the bar for “urban” from 2,500 people to 5,000 people or 2,000 homes and began measuring density in housing units instead of residents, that 1,140 small urban areas of 2010, home to about 4.2 million people, became rural, mostly because the bar moved, and quotes the Bureau’s release that the small decline “was largely the result of changes to the criteria.” The main chart draws the same 1900–2020 urban share as a grey line, with labelled points at 39.6% in 1900, 56.5% in 1940, 64.0% in 1950, 75.2% in 1990, 79.0% in 2000 and 80.7% in 2010, and the 2010–2020 step to 80.0% drawn dashed in rust. Three dotted rust verticals mark redefinitions: 1950, unincorporated suburbs counted as urban; 2000, “urban clusters” replace town limits; and 2020, 5,000 people or 2,000 homes. A subtitle notes the criteria have also been revised in smaller ways at every census since 1950, and a note says every step since 1950 joins two slightly different definitions and the dotted lines mark the three biggest changes: the largest jump, 1940–50, and the largest since the 1950s, 1990–2000, each straddle one, and 2010–20 straddles the first rise in the 2,500-person threshold since 1910. On the right, a slopegraph “2010 to 2020, one definition at a time”, of unrounded shares on an axis from 79% to 81%, notes that the same-rule lines end at the 2016–20 ACS and the published one at the 2020 Census. It has three lines: 2010 rules for both years, ending at 80.65%, labelled “slipped 0.08 pt”; 2020 thresholds for both years, flat at 79.57%, labelled “no change”; and the published figures, a dashed rust line from 80.7% under 2010 rules to 80.0% under 2020 rules. Under “Where the ‘rural boom’ came from”, text says the published rural count rose 6.8 million, +11.4%, against +6.4% for urban, but that 4.2 million people in 1,140 areas urban in 2010 were counted rural in 2020, a few areas moving the other way, and that with the 2020 thresholds applied to the 2010 Census and the 2016–20 survey alike, urban and rural each grew about 5.8%, our arithmetic on the Bureau’s Table 2. “Drawing it straight” says to mark the year a definition changes on the chart itself and compare across it only with both ends measured one way. A footnote lists the Census Bureau sources, says the same-rule figures are Bureau estimates from 2016–2020 ACS 5-year data, that the 79.57% line applies only the new population and housing thresholds, not every 2020 delineation change, and that the drawing and the briefing it corrects are ours. — Showing the misleading chart

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A planning briefing we drew charts America’s urban share from 1900 to 2020 and finds it falling for the first time, 80.7% to 80.0%. For 2020 the Census Bureau raised the bar for “urban” from 2,500 people to 5,000 people or 2,000 homes, and 1,140 small urban areas home to about 4.2 million people were counted rural. Measured one way at both ends, the share barely moved.

U.S. Census Bureau: decennial census urban and rural population, 1900–2010 (Iowa State Data Center compilation; 1950 onward on the definition then current); 2020 Census Urban Areas Facts; press release CB22-CN.25, 29 December 2022; and Michael Ratcliffe, “Redefining Urban Areas following the 2020 Census”, Random Samplings blog, 22 December 2022, Tables 1–2. The planning briefing, its advice and both drawings are ours; every figure is the Bureau’s, and the growth rates are our arithmetic on its counts., 2022Added October 20, 2026

01The claim

After a century of moving to the cities, Americans have started moving back to the countryside, so a growth plan should budget for rural demand at the 2010s rate.

02The trick

Every point on the line is the Census Bureau’s published urban share, but each one is measured with the definition of “urban” in force that year, and for 2020 the definition moved. The minimum size for an urban area rose from 2,500 people, the threshold since 1910, to 5,000 people or 2,000 housing units, and density began to be measured in homes rather than residents. 1,140 small urban areas of 2010, home to about 4.2 million people, were rural in 2020, mostly because the bar moved. The line draws the old rule and the new one as a single series, so the step between them reads as Americans changing course; the Bureau’s release says the small decline “was largely the result of changes to the criteria.” The growth card leans on the same step: rural’s +11.4% counts the 4.2 million people in those reclassified areas as if they were new rural growth. The fine print does say “urban areas as defined at each census”, but a footnote can’t do the work of a break drawn in the line. (Fennimore Hale and its briefing are our invention; every figure is the Census Bureau’s.)

03The fix

The redraw marks the biggest redefinitions on the line itself, in 1950, 2000 and 2020, and then measures 2010 to 2020 one way at a time. The Bureau ran that comparison when it announced the new rules: on the 2010 rules, the 2010 Census and the 2016–2020 American Community Survey both put the urban share at 80.7%; with the 2020 thresholds applied to both, both come out at 79.6%. Unrounded, the share slipped by less than a tenth of a point on the old rules (80.73% to 80.65%) and did not move at all on the new thresholds, where urban and rural each grew about 5.8% between the 2010 Census and the 2016–2020 survey (our arithmetic on the Bureau’s counts). (Those same-rule figures are estimates that apply only the new size thresholds, which is partly why 79.6% sits a little below the published 80.0%.) The earlier breaks matter too: the largest jump on the chart, 1940 to 1950, straddles the year suburbs outside city limits were first counted as urban. When a long series crosses a change of definition, put the change on the chart, and compare across it only with both ends measured the same way.