The 10.8 million visitors that were one July, times twelve

The annualised run-rate The seasonal swing

Off-white investor-update slide, masthead “Canister Club · Bear-spray rental, West Glacier, Montana · Investor update” on the left and “Glacier National Park · NPS visitation · August 2026” on the right, headlined “Glacier is now a 10.8-million-visitor park. We’re stocking for every one of them.” A gold chip reads “Demonstration · drawn by us from public data”. A standfirst says the company’s market is everyone who walks into Glacier National Park and that, annualised on the latest month of National Park Service visitation, it has grown 45-fold since January, from a run-rate of 241,272 visitors a year to 10,756,632, more than three times the park’s best-ever year. The main panel, “Annualised visitor run-rate · Glacier National Park · 2026”, noted as recreation visits in the month × 12 on a zero-based linear axis, is a green line with a light fill running from January to July 2026: 0.24M, 0.26M, 0.30M, 0.62M, 2.66M, 7.05M and, marked with a large yellow dot, 10.76M, on an axis to 12 million. A dashed gold rule at 3.31M is labelled “Record year, 2017 · 3.31M visits”, and the line crosses it between May and June. A dark card on the right prints “10.8M visitors / year” as the July 2026 run-rate: July’s 896,386 recreation visits × 12, 3.3 times the park’s record year of 3,305,512 in 2017 and up 17% on last July. A card headed “The plan” says that at one rental per ten visitors a 10.8M-visitor park needs 1.08 million canisters a year, and that the company is placing its 2027 order now and opening a second counter at St. Mary. A small table lists January, April, June and July 2026 visits and their × 12 figures, ending 896,386 and 10,756,632. The footer credits the National Park Service’s Visitor Use Statistics report of recreation visitors by month for Glacier NP, notes that 2026 figures are preliminary and that the run-rate is the month multiplied by twelve, and says the slide is a demonstration drawn by Misleading Charts in the manner of a start-up investor update, with the company, its plan and its canister order invented. — Showing the misleading chart

Cream-background redraw kicked “The same park-service file · one July, and every year since 1979” and headlined “The 10.8 million that was one July, times twelve.” A standfirst says multiplying a month by twelve assumes every month is like it, that at Glacier none are, because it is a summer park and June to September carried 83% of 2025’s visits, that every July since 1979 times twelve has come out between 2.9 and 3.9 times the year it belonged to, and that annualising July 2026 gives 10,756,632 while the last twelve months that actually happened give 3,472,061, still the park’s busiest twelve months on record, by 2%. The main panel, “Pick a month, any month: the run-rate it gives”, draws twelve light tan bars, one per month of 2025 multiplied by twelve, on a zero-based axis to 12 million: low in winter, with February the lowest at 182,424, rising through May to 6.92M in June and 9.18M in July, then falling through August, September and October (1.53M) to under 0.4M in November and December. Blue dots mark each month of 2026 to September multiplied by twelve, above the 2025 bars in seven of the nine months, and July 2026 is a larger orange dot labelled “July 2026 × 12 = 10.76M”. A solid black rule at 3.14M is labelled “What 2025 actually was”, and only June to September reach above it. Top right, “Every July × 12, divided by the year it came from”, is a blue line from 1979 to 2025 that stays between roughly 3 and 4 times, peaking at 3.87× in 1984 and ending at 2.93× in 2025, far above a dashed line at 1× labelled “July × 12 = the year”. Below it, “The honest annual figure: the last twelve months”, is a rolling twelve-month total from January 2015 to September 2026 on a zero-based axis to 4 million, stepping from about 2.3 million to a peak of 3.41M in August 2017, dipping sharply in the 2020 pandemic year, recovering to about 3 million and ending at a record 3.47M in September 2026. A table compares the record calendar year, 2017, at 3,305,512; the twelve months to September 2026 at 3,472,061, +5.0%; a 2026 estimate of 3.45 to 3.50 million, +4 to 6%; and July 2026 × 12 at 10,756,632, +225%, in orange. Three notes say July carried 24.4% of 2025’s visits, not 8.3%, and February × 12 is wrong the other way; that January to September 2026 is 11.3% ahead of 2025 and July 17.2% ahead of last July, so 2026 should be a record by 4 to 6%; and that the fix is a trailing-twelve-month total or a same-month-last-year comparison, which at one canister per ten visitors means about 350,000 canisters, not 1.08 million. The footer credits the National Park Service Visitor Use Statistics, says 2026 figures are preliminary, explains the estimate, and says both drawings are ours and the rental company is invented. — Showing the misleading chart

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A start-up investor update we drew says Glacier National Park is now a 10.8-million-visitor park, up 45-fold since January, and orders 1.08 million canisters of bear spray to match. The figure is July 2026’s 896,386 recreation visits multiplied by twelve. But July is not a twelfth of Glacier’s year: in 2025 it was 24.4%, and every July since 1979, times twelve, has come out between 2.9 and 3.9 times the year it belonged to. The park’s real last twelve months, 3,472,061 visits, are still its busiest on record, by 2%.

National Park Service, Visitor Use Statistics (IRMA), “Recreation Visitors By Month (1979 – Last Calendar Year)”, Glacier National Park, read 1 November 2026 (2026 figures preliminary until finalised early in 2027); run-rates, ratios, rolling totals and the 2026 range computed by us, 2026Added November 2, 2026

01The claim

Glacier National Park is now a 10.8-million-visitor park, up 45-fold since January. An investor update of the kind a small park-gateway business might send, which we drew from the National Park Service’s public visitation figures for an invented bear-spray rental company: it plots an “annualised visitor run-rate” for each month of 2026, climbing from 241,272 in January to 10,756,632 in July, more than three times the park’s record year of 3,305,512 visits in 2017. On that number, at one rental per ten visitors, the company orders 1.08 million canisters of bear spray.

02The trick

The run-rate is each month’s recreation visits multiplied by twelve, which treats every month as a typical twelfth of the year. At Glacier none of them are. It is a summer park: June to September carried 83.3% of 2025’s visits, and July alone carried 24.4%, about three times a twelfth. So July × 12 is roughly three years of Glacier, and it is not a 2026 fluke: run the same sum for every year in the park service’s file and July × 12 has come out between 2.93 times (2025) and 3.87 times (1984) the year it came from, in every one of the 47 years from 1979 to 2025. The month-by-month line is the season drawn on a growth axis. It rises from January to July because that is when Glacier’s visitors come, every year, not because the market grew 45-fold, and the same arithmetic run on February 2025 says Glacier gets 182,424 visitors a year. The slide went out just after the busiest month, which is when a run-rate is most flattering.

03The fix

Count a year that actually happened. The redraw puts every month of 2025, times twelve, beside what 2025 really was (3,136,557 visits): only June to September clear it, and the twelve run-rates span February’s 182,424 to July’s 9,180,732. For the current size of the park, the honest figure is a trailing-twelve-month total, October 2025 to September 2026, which covers every season exactly once: 3,472,061 visits, the most in any twelve months in the file, 2.0% above the previous peak of 3,405,133 (the twelve months to August 2017) and 5.0% above the 2017 calendar year. For momentum, compare like months: July 2026 was 17.2% above July 2025, and January to September 2026 was 11.3% ahead of the same months of 2025. The good news is real, just a third the size. If a forward number is needed, add the months still to come at sizes they have actually had: October to December added between 150,966 and 207,159 visits in each of 2021 to 2025, which puts 2026 at roughly 3.45 to 3.50 million, a record by 4–6%, and at one canister per ten visitors about 350,000 canisters rather than 1.08 million. (2026 figures are the park service’s preliminary counts, and recreation visits are counted entries, not unique people.)